Strait of Hormuz Closure Adds €127 Billion Energy Cost for Europe

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz would cause a severe disruption to global oil supply, leading to a sharp rise in energy prices. An additional cost of 127 billion euros for Europe would intensify inflationary pressures and weaken expectations of interest rate cuts by central banks. This would reduce risk appetite and create selling pressure in equity markets; in energy-importing countries like Turkey, it would create additional negative effects through the current account deficit and inflation. In the short term, market sentiment would clearly trend downward.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz signals a severe disruption to global oil supply, creating an upward risk premium for Brent. However, the price has fallen 3.36% in the last 24 hours to 105.10, with an RSI of 40.9 indicating weak momentum; MACD is in negative territory and below the signal line. The price is nearly equal to the SMA20, while the SMA50 at 108.68 acts as resistance above. While the news is expected to create a geopolitical risk premium, current technical weakness suggests the upside may be limited. Short-term news-driven buying may be seen, but the 108-109 band should be watched as strong resistance.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz would create a severe shock to global energy supply and put upward pressure on LNG/natural gas prices. However, NATGAS has fallen 2.7% in the last 24 hours to 2.884, with RSI at 46.8 in neutral territory and MACD slightly negative. The price is very close to the SMA20 (2.879) and trading just below the SMA50 (2.896), indicating a weak technical picture. Since the news could create a geopolitical risk premium, a short-term upward reaction is possible, but confidence is low given weak momentum. Over a 1-3 day window, news-driven volatility and limited upside are expected.