Nomination Process for ECB Presidency Begins: Lagarde to Depart in February

The start of the ECB presidential race and Lagarde's departure in February may create uncertainty in the euro and European bonds in the short term. Markets may remain cautious until signals regarding the identity of the candidates and their monetary policy stance emerge. In Turkey, while the direct impact is limited, fluctuations in global risk appetite could create indirect pressure on the lira and BIST. The overall direction will be shaped by the policy leanings of the new president rather than by the news itself.

The early start to the ECB presidential race and Lagarde's February departure create short-term uncertainty but do not signal a concrete policy change. The price is trading sideways at 1.119; RSI at 45.6 is in neutral territory and MACD is very close to zero, indicating weak momentum. SMA20 and SMA50 are almost overlapping (1.1192/1.1189), showing no clear directional bias. The news headline alone is not enough to create sustained pressure or support on the EUR; the market will focus more on who the successor candidate will be and on policy continuity. Therefore, I remain neutral in the 1-3 day outlook, but volatility may increase as concrete name news about the nomination process emerges.