Trump's Statement on Halting Oil Payments to Israel Drops Oil, Lifts Gold

Brent declined 4% over the past 24 hours to 102.31, with its RSI at 29.6 approaching oversold territory. The price is trading below its SMA20 (105.04) and SMA50 (108.47), indicating a weak short-term trend. MACD remains in negative territory but is close to its signal line, suggesting momentum loss may be limited. The news flow supports supply-side downward pressure; however, oversold conditions could open the door to bargain-hunting buying. A mild downward bias is expected over the next 1-3 days, though volatility remains high.

The news headline supports the geopolitical risk premium and safe-haven demand for gold, while the decline in oil prices may somewhat ease inflation expectations and thereby reduce pressure on gold. The technical picture is also positive: the price is above the SMA20 and SMA50, MACD is above the signal line, and RSI at 65 is strong but has not yet entered overbought territory. The 24-hour gain of 3.8% indicates strong short-term momentum, but after such a rapid move there is a risk of profit-taking. Therefore, I expect a moderate upward trend over a 1-3 day horizon; if RSI rises above 70, the probability of a correction increases.

The news creates a mildly positive geopolitical risk premium for gold; although the decline in oil prices limits inflation expectations, safe-haven demand appears dominant. RSI stands at 44 in neutral territory, with no overbought risk and room for upside. MACD is in negative territory but above its signal line, indicating a weak recovery in momentum. The price is trading clearly above SMA20 and SMA50, with short-term trend support maintained. Nevertheless, I will remain limited to a single headline; the impact may be moderately upward over 1-3 days, and additional confirmation is needed for a strong breakout.