Oil Flows from the Persian Gulf Recover, Physical Crude Prices Fall

The recovery of oil flows from the Persian Gulf and a decline in physical crude prices indicate easing on the supply side, creating short-term downward pressure on Brent. The price is trading at 103.58, below the SMA20 (104.79) and SMA50 (107.47), pointing to an already weak technical picture. RSI is at 40 in neutral-weak territory and does not signal oversold, while MACD is slightly below its signal line and negative. The 24-hour change of -0.98% is consistent with the direction of the news. However, RSI at 40 leaves limited downside room; therefore, confidence should be kept at a moderate level.

The news points to an easing on the supply side as oil flows from the Persian Gulf recover and physical crude prices fall; this is a mildly negative short-term signal for integrated oil companies such as BP. The technical picture is also weak: the price is below the 20- and 50-day moving averages, and MACD is negative and below its signal line. However, with RSI at 29, it is close to oversold territory, suggesting that the decline may be limited and that rebound buying could emerge. Therefore, although I see the direction as downward, I keep confidence at a moderate level; a limited decline or sideways movement is more likely in the 1-3 day horizon.

The news creates a mildly negative backdrop in the short term for integrated oil companies such as CVX, as crude oil supply recovers and physical prices decline. The technical picture is also weak: the price is below the SMA20 and SMA50, and MACD is in negative territory and below its signal line. Although RSI at 34 is close to the oversold threshold, this alone is not a reversal signal; momentum remains to the downside. With the 24-hour change negative and the news flow pointing to increased supply, pressure could persist for 1-3 days. Nevertheless, the low RSI level limits the risk of severe selling, so I do not assign high confidence.

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