Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations from 16 Institutions: Two Scenarios for December

According to a survey compiled by Matriks News from the assessments of 16 institutions, the median year-end inflation expectation rose to 29.8%. This data indicates that market participants have revised their inflation outlook upward. According to the survey results, two different scenarios stand out for December monetary policy. Five institutions expect the CBRT to cut the policy rate by 100 basis points in December. This expectation was reflected in the survey as a view indicating that the rate cut cycle may continue. The expectations of the remaining institutions differ from the rate cut scenario. However, the source text does not provide detailed information on the specific interest rate expectations of these institutions. Therefore, the only clear interest rate expectation for December is the view for a 100 basis point cut. The rise in the inflation expectation to 29.8% indicates that the price stability outlook for the year-end points to a higher path compared to previous forecasts. This situation causes market players to price in different scenarios regarding the course of monetary policy. Not investment advice.