October inflation exceeds expectations, 100‑basis‑point cut for TCMB emerges as leading forecast

The October inflation data, which came in above market expectations, has reignited discussions about the Central Bank’s December rate decision. According to information compiled by Matriks Haber from 16 institutions, expectations for a 100‑basis‑point rate cut at the December meeting have gained traction. However, rising energy prices and risks related to reserves have prompted some institutions to call for a pause in rate cuts, increasing uncertainty about the trajectory of monetary policy. The fact that inflation surpassed expectations is among the key factors the Central Bank will consider in its rate decision. Market participants view the decision to be taken at the December meeting as critical for both inflation outlook and financial stability. This is not investment advice.