Fed Rate Hike Expectations Rise After US Employment Data

The SPX declined 2.8% over the past 24 hours to 7374 and is trading below its SMA20 and SMA50, indicating a weak short-term trend. Although the RSI at 31 is approaching oversold territory, the MACD remains in negative territory and below its signal line, suggesting downward momentum. Rising Fed rate expectations following employment data may strengthen the perception of tight monetary policy and weigh on risk appetite. This could create additional selling pressure on the index, although oversold conditions may also bring short-term rebound buying. Nevertheless, the main direction is downward; a cautious negative stance is maintained for the 1-3 day outlook.

DXY is trading at 102.29, above both its SMA20 and SMA50; the 24-hour gain of 0.69% indicates strong short-term momentum. However, RSI14 at 74.99 is approaching overbought territory, suggesting that the upside move may be limited. MACD is slightly above its signal line and in positive territory, supporting the preservation of the trend. Following strong employment data, rising Fed rate expectations stand out as a factor favoring the dollar. Nevertheless, given the overbought level, limited upside potential and a possible consolidation in the short term should not be overlooked.

The rise in Fed rate expectations following US employment data could create limited upward pressure on USDTRY; however, the price is nearly flat in the last close. Although RSI at 61.8 is in slightly positive territory, it is not overbought, and MACD is below the signal line with weak momentum. The price is just above SMA20 and SMA50, indicating a sideways-supported outlook in the short term. The news alone is not sufficient to generate a strong directional signal; a neutral bias stands out in the 1-3 day horizon.