Explosions Heard in Iran: US Strikes Commercial Ship in Gulf of Oman

The US strike on a commercial vessel in the Gulf of Oman heightens regional tensions and raises supply risk. Such geopolitical developments typically push Brent prices higher in the short term. Technical indicators, meanwhile, support a moderate upward trend, with the 20-day moving average above the 50-day average and the RSI around 50. However, a negative MACD and a 0.94% price decline within 24 hours indicate that an abrupt rally will not occur immediately. Therefore, a modest price increase can be expected in the short term, though volatility may remain elevated.

Escalating geopolitical tensions in Iran and the Gulf of Oman could support gold by increasing safe-haven demand. However, the technical picture is weak: the price is below the SMA20 and SMA50, MACD is negative and RSI stands at 38, meaning short-term momentum is to the downside. The 4% decline over the past 24 hours may limit the impact of the news; the reaction could be limited and volatile. Since geopolitical headlines are generally short-lived, the durability of any upward move is uncertain. I therefore forecast a cautious upward bias, but with a low level of confidence.