Attack on Khor Mor Gas Field in Iraq: 2,800 Megawatt Loss in Electricity Generation Expected

An attack on the Khor Mor natural gas field in Iraq's Sulaymaniyah province has halted production at the site. Following the incident, gas shipments to power plants in five centers in the region were cut off. The impact of the attack on energy supply will manifest as a serious decline in electricity generation. A production loss of between 2,500 and 2,800 megawatts is expected in the region. The halt in natural gas shipments has caused disruptions in fuel supply to the plants, increasing risks to electricity supply security. Authorities are continuing damage assessment work at the site, and no statement has yet been made on when production will resume. Such attacks on energy infrastructure negatively affect the supply-demand balance in the regional power grid and bring the risk of outages. The magnitude of the production loss is directly related to the capacity of the plants whose gas shipments were cut off. Not investment advice.

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An attack on a natural gas field in Iraq and the expectation of a 2,800 MW loss in electricity generation could heighten regional supply concerns and create short-term upward pressure on natural gas prices. Technical indicators support this outlook: the price is above the SMA20 and SMA50, the RSI at 59.7 is in neutral-to-positive territory, and the MACD is above its signal line. However, the impact may remain limited because Iraq's share of global gas supply is relatively small and the news amounts to a geopolitical risk premium. A moderate upward bias is possible over a 1-3 day horizon, but a sustained rally would require confirmation of broader supply disruptions. Confidence should be kept at a moderate level.

RSI 14

59.7

MACD

0.01

24h Δ

1.34%

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