Fed's Waller Supports Rate Hike in December

Waller's support for a December rate hike could strengthen tightening expectations and weigh on risk appetite. SPX has fallen 2% over the past 24 hours to 7549 and is trading just below its SMA50 (7554); this is a weak technical picture in the short term. RSI at 54 is in neutral territory, with no oversold signal; MACD is in negative territory and, although above its signal line, momentum is weak. Because the news is oriented toward pricing in rate-hike expectations, the probability of downward pressure over the next 1-3 days is higher. Still, since rebound buying may be seen, the confidence level should be kept at a moderate level.

Waller's support for a December rate hike is a mildly positive signal for DXY; a hawkish-toned Fed message could support the dollar. However, the technical picture is weak: the price is below the SMA20 and SMA50, RSI at 38 places it in seller territory, and MACD is below its signal line. Therefore, the impact of the news may remain limited, and an upward attempt could struggle in the 101.70-101.93 resistance zone. I expect a mild upward bias in the short term, but a close above 101.70 should be monitored for confirmation. On the downside, support around 101.40 should be watched.

Waller's support for a December rate hike can be seen as a negative signal for gold prices, as rate hikes generally put pressure on precious metals. However, the RSI14 level at 69.6, close to overbought territory, and the price trading well above the SMA20 and SMA50 increase the risk of a short-term correction. MACD remaining above its signal line preserves positive momentum, suggesting the decline may remain limited. The 1% drop over the past 24 hours implies the news is beginning to be priced in. Overall, a downward trend is expected on rate hike expectations, but the decline is likely to be limited due to strong technical indicators.