US Consumer Prices Rose More Than Expected in October

The stronger-than-expected US inflation data is a mildly positive catalyst for the DXY, on expectations that the Fed may delay interest rate cuts. The index is already trading above its SMA20 and SMA50, and the 24-hour change is positive. However, with RSI at 65.8 it is approaching overbought territory, and MACD remains below its signal line, suggesting upside momentum may be limited. I expect a moderate upward bias in the short term, but MACD would need to cross above its signal line for the move to gain strength. The confidence level should be kept at moderate.

A higher-than-expected CPI in the US could support the USD and lead to gains against the JPY. Technical indicators also point to an upward direction: the price is above the SMA20 and SMA50, MACD is above the signal line, and RSI is at 68, near overbought territory but not yet overbought. USDJPY is expected to show a slight upward move within a 1-3 day period.

In the US, higher-than-expected CPI inflation may weaken expectations for Fed rate cuts, potentially creating short-term pressure on gold prices. GLD's 1.86% decline over the past 24 hours and RSI14 at 69.6, near the overbought threshold, increase the risk of profit-taking. Although MACD remaining slightly above its signal line suggests momentum has not fully deteriorated, the hot inflation data could support a short-term downward correction. Nevertheless, the downside may be limited as gold is likely to see safe-haven demand as an inflation hedge. Therefore, while I see the direction as downward, I maintain medium confidence.

The higher-than-expected US inflation data creates expectations that the Fed may delay interest rate cuts and the dollar could strengthen, putting pressure on commodity prices. Brent has already fallen 4.6% in 24 hours and with an RSI of 29, it is near oversold territory, increasing the likelihood of a short-term rebound. The MACD is in negative territory and the price is below the SMA20 and SMA50, indicating a weak technical outlook. The impact of the news may be limited as the market may have largely priced it in. While downward pressure may persist in the short term, oversold conditions could limit a sharp decline.