US October Inflation Exceeds Expectations

October inflation exceeding expectations could dampen risk appetite in the short term by weakening expectations for Fed rate cuts. SPX has fallen 2% over the past 24 hours to 7549 and has slipped just below its SMA50 (7554); this break signals short-term weakness. However, RSI at 54 is in neutral territory and the price is above the SMA20 (7456), so there is no oversold condition. MACD is negative but above its signal line, indicating the decline has not yet gained momentum. Therefore, I expect limited downside pressure; the 7450-7500 band should be watched as critical support.

US October inflation coming in above expectations is a mild positive catalyst for the DXY, on expectations that the Fed may delay interest rate cuts. The price is trading above the SMA20 and SMA50, with the RSI at 64.8 approaching overbought territory. The MACD is in negative territory but near its signal line, with momentum weak. Limited upward pressure on the dollar index can be expected in the short term, although the RSI level caps upside potential. Confidence level: medium.

In the US, October inflation coming in above expectations could create short-term pressure on gold, signaling that the Fed may delay interest rate cuts and that real rates could remain elevated. GLD appears to have priced in some of this risk, declining around 2% over the past 24 hours. RSI at 69.6 is close to the overbought threshold, and although MACD remains in positive territory, momentum is showing signs of weakening. With the price trading well above the SMA20 and SMA50, the risk of profit-taking is increasing. Nevertheless, the inflation data alone should not be expected to break the trend; I foresee moderate downward pressure in the 1-3 day outlook.