US Inflation Exceeds Expectations, Gold Prices Fall Sharply

US inflation exceeding expectations weakens Fed rate cut expectations, putting pressure on gold; short-term downside risk for GLD has increased. Technical indicators are already near overbought territory: RSI14 at 69.6 and price above SMA20, supporting correction potential. Although MACD remains in positive territory, it is hovering near the signal line, indicating momentum may weaken. After the 1.95% rise in the last 24 hours, news-driven profit-taking may occur. Nevertheless, the impact of a single news event may be limited; SMA20 (375.3) and SMA50 (367.9) should be watched as support.

US inflation exceeding expectations is putting pressure on gold amid expectations that the Fed may delay interest rate cuts, and a sharp 7.7% drop in 24 hours confirms this. Although the price is trying to hold just above the SMA20 (38.01), it is trading below the SMA50 (38.94); the short-term trend is weak. RSI at 49 is in neutral territory, with no oversold signal; MACD is negative but slightly above the signal line, indicating momentum has not fully deteriorated. Since the news flow is negative, downward pressure may continue over 1-3 days, but if the 38.00 support is not broken, reaction buying may be seen. Nevertheless, determining direction based on a single headline is risky; volume and the 38.00 level should be monitored for confirmation.

The US inflation exceeding expectations creates a mildly positive backdrop for the DXY, as it may delay Fed rate cuts. Although the RSI at 66.7 approaches overbought territory, it has not yet generated a sell signal; the price trading above the SMA20 and SMA50 supports the short-term upward bias. The MACD is in negative territory but near the signal line, momentum is weak, and directional confirmation is limited. The inflation surprise could be perceived as dollar-positive, but in the 1-3 day window, the impact is likely to remain moderate and selling pressure may emerge in the 102.5-103 resistance zone. Therefore, while I see the direction as upward, I maintain medium confidence.