Allianz: Markets Are Underestimating Inflation Rise

Allianz's warning that inflation is being underestimated carries a mildly supportive thematic tone for gold, as inflation risk could increase demand for inflation-hedge instruments such as GLD. However, this is an opinion statement and does not contain a concrete data surprise, so its impact may remain limited. On the technical side, the RSI at 43 is in neutral-to-weak territory, MACD is below its signal line and momentum is uncertain; the price, meanwhile, is trading well above the SMA20 and SMA50. In the short term, the news alone is not sufficient to determine direction; a flat-to-limited reaction is expected over the 1-3 day view. Unless additional data on the inflation theme or a Fed tone emerges, an upward move will be difficult to sustain.

Allianz's warning that inflation is being underestimated could strengthen expectations that central banks will remain more hawkish, potentially creating pressure on EURUSD. The technical picture is already weak: the price is below the SMA20 and SMA50, MACD is in negative territory, and RSI at 34 signals selling pressure. However, with RSI approaching oversold territory, the likelihood of short-term rebound buying increases. The news impact may be indirect and limited; the main determinant will be the US and Eurozone data flow. I therefore forecast a downward bias but keep confidence at a moderate level.