CBRT Raises Credit Growth Limits

The CBRT's raising of credit growth limits can be perceived as a positive step in the short term for the banking sector and credit-sensitive sectors. This move may strengthen expectations that liquidity conditions will be somewhat eased in the markets, thereby increasing risk appetite. However, due to inflation and monetary tightening concerns, the effect is likely to remain limited and the overall market direction is likely to remain uncertain. Nevertheless, a short-term positive reaction may be seen in BIST, led by banking stocks.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) raising credit growth limits can be considered a mildly positive catalyst for AKBNK, as it will allow banks to increase their loan volume. However, the reflection of such regulations on profitability may take time and the impact may remain limited. On the technical side, the price is almost at the same level as the SMA20 (70.8), the RSI is at 56 in neutral territory, and the MACD is slightly below its signal line; thus, there is no clear momentum. Staying above the SMA50 (69.08) supports the short-term outlook, but confirmation for an upward move is weak. Therefore, the 1-3 day effect is expected to be mildly positive but with low confidence.

The CBRT's raising of credit growth limits can be read as a mildly positive signal for the banking sector in terms of loan volume and net interest income. GARAN's price is trading above its SMA20 and SMA50, indicating a positive medium-term trend. However, RSI14 at 67.9 has approached overbought territory and MACD is below its signal line, suggesting weakening momentum in the short term. The slight decline over the past 24 hours and mixed indicator readings point to the possibility that the news impact may remain limited. Therefore, for a 1-3 day outlook, I foresee a moderately upward but cautious picture.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s decision to raise credit‑growth limits is expected to enable banks to expand their loan portfolios, which should provide a modest positive catalyst for ISCTR. However, the share has fallen 0.44 % in the last 24 hours and is trading below its 20‑day simple moving average (SMA20) of 13.69 while remaining above the 50‑day SMA (13.39), indicating weak short‑term momentum. The relative strength index (RSI) sits at 52.7, a neutral level, and the MACD is below its signal line (0.077 vs 0.117), suggesting that bullish confirmation has not yet materialised. Although the news represents a structural support for the banking sector, technical indicators do not currently endorse a strong upward move. Consequently, the impact is judged to be a limited positive one, with breaking the 13.69 resistance level being critical for the trend to crystallise.