CBRT Raises Inflation Forecasts

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s (TCMB) decision to raise its inflation projections may exert a modest negative pressure on the Turkish lira, thereby supporting an upward trend in the USDTRY pair. However, the currency is currently trading just above the 50‑period and 50‑period simple moving averages (SMA20 and SMA50) at 50.2575. The 14‑period Relative Strength Index (RSI14) sits at 66.7, approaching the over‑bought zone, which suggests that any upside momentum could be limited. The MACD line is above its signal line and resides in the positive region, indicating a slightly bullish short‑term momentum. With the 24‑hour change nearly flat, the impact of the news is likely to be modest and gradual. Overall, a moderate bullish bias is expected, but confidence remains at an intermediate level due to the RSI reading.

TCMB’s inflation forecast upgrade can be interpreted as a slight negative pressure on the lira; however, such forecast updates are typically already priced into the market. Technical indicators paint an indecisive picture: the RSI hovers around neutral at 50, the MACD sits just above the signal line yet remains in negative territory, and the price is slightly above the SMA20 but below the SMA50. With the 24‑hour change near flat (‑0.05 %), there is a weak short‑term directional signal. Consequently, the news is expected to have a limited, directionless impact over the next 1–3 days; a sharp move in the lira would require an additional trigger.