Dollar Hits 19-Month High: Fed Rate Hike Expectations Strengthen

The DXY is refreshing its 19-month high at 103.20, maintaining momentum with a 0.26% gain in 24 hours. Although the RSI at 65.6 approaches overbought territory, it has not yet confirmed; the MACD remains slightly below the signal line but in positive territory. The price is trading above the SMA20 and SMA50, supporting the short-term bullish trend. Strengthening expectations of a Fed rate hike provide a fundamental catalyst in favor of the dollar. However, the elevated RSI and the MACD remaining below the signal line keep the risk of a limited correction alive; therefore, a moderately confident upward bias is expected.

The news reports that expectations for a Fed rate hike have strengthened and the dollar has refreshed its 19-month high; this is an upward catalyst for USDTRY. On the technical side, the price is above the SMA20 and SMA50, the RSI at 56 is far from overbought territory, and the MACD is positive above the signal line; momentum has a slight upward bias. Since the 24-hour change is limited (0.06%), additional buying is needed to confirm the move. Although the upward trend is dominant in the short term, it should be remembered that news-driven reactions may have been priced in quickly. Therefore, I forecast an upward direction with moderate confidence.