Central Bank Inflation Forecasts Align with Market Expectations

The Central Bank's inflation forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 matched exactly the median expectations in the Matriks News survey. This alignment indicates that market participants' predictions regarding the forecast path are in line with the Central Bank's projections. The banks and brokerage firms participating in the survey noted that energy, food, and import costs were effective behind the upward revision in inflation forecasts. It is stated that developments in these cost items increased price pressures, leading to an upward update of the forecast range. Of the 10 institutions surveyed, 6 expect a 100 basis point interest rate cut at the meeting to be held on December 10. This expectation reveals that a significant portion of institutions foresee a easing step in monetary policy. The alignment of inflation forecasts with expectations and the growing weight of interest rate cut expectations are among the topics to be closely monitored in terms of market pricing regarding the course of monetary policy in the upcoming period. Not investment advice.