CBRT Survey: Year-End Inflation Expectation Exceeds 30%

A recent Turkish Central Bank survey revealed that year‑end inflation expectations have surpassed 30%, a development that could exert downward pressure on the Turkish lira (TL). Technical analysis shows the currency is trading very close to both the 20‑day and 50‑day simple moving averages (SMA20 and SMA50). The relative strength index (RSI) sits at 52, indicating a neutral stance, while the MACD line is just above its signal line, suggesting limited momentum. The 24‑hour price change is only 0.17%, implying that the market has not yet fully priced in the survey results. In the short term, a moderate upward trend in the EUR/TRY pair is anticipated, but for a stronger move to materialize, the currency will need to maintain a position above the SMA50. Overall confidence in this outlook is considered medium.

The central bank survey's year-end inflation expectation exceeding 30% is a development that could create depreciation pressure on the Turkish lira. However, USDTRY is already at 50.36 and the RSI at 62 is not close to overbought territory; MACD is positive above its signal line, and short-term momentum is slightly upward. The price trading just above the SMA20 and SMA50 supports a limited upward bias. Unless the deterioration in inflation expectations creates a lasting interest rate/risk premium effect, the reaction may remain limited. I therefore foresee a moderately upward outlook.