CBRT November Survey: Year-End Inflation and USD/TRY Expectations Rise

The upward revision to year-end inflation and USD/TRY expectations in the Central Bank of Turkey's November survey could create mild negative pressure on the Turkish lira and support an upward bias in the exchange rate. On the technical side, the price is trading above the SMA20 and SMA50, while the RSI at 62 is positive but still far from overbought territory; the MACD is above its signal line and momentum is moderately positive. This combination raises the likelihood of limited upward movement in the short term, though the magnitude of the move remains uncertain. The survey-driven rise in expectations is not a strong catalyst on its own; with the 24-hour change at only 0.09%, the reaction may remain limited. I therefore forecast an upward direction but keep confidence at a moderate level.

The rise in the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (TCMB) inflation and USD/TRY expectations signals a weakening of the Turkish lira. EUR/TRY is expected to show a slight increase in the short term. RSI and MACD signals also support this direction, although SMA20 being below SMA50 may create short-term uncertainty.