CBRT Survey: Year-End Inflation and USD/TRY Expectations Rise

The upward revision in year-end inflation and USD/TRY expectations in the CBRT survey could create mild negative pressure on the Turkish lira and support an upward bias in the exchange rate. Technical indicators also point in this direction: the price is above the SMA20 and SMA50, and the RSI at 62 indicates positive momentum but is not close to overbought territory. The MACD is above its signal line and in positive territory, confirming the short-term upward trend. Since the 24-hour change is limited (0.09%), the impact is not expected to be strong but moderate. Nevertheless, the deterioration in survey-based expectations could support the exchange rate in the short term within 1-3 days; caution is warranted against sudden news flow.

The rise in year-end inflation and USD/TRY expectations in the Turkish Central Bank survey may signal potential depreciation pressure on the Turkish lira. EURTRY last closed at 55.77, slightly above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA20), with a positive 24-hour change; the RSI at 52 is in neutral territory, indicating no overbought conditions. The MACD is in negative territory but above its signal line, pointing to a short-term recovery tendency. This combination supports the possibility of a limited upward movement due to the news; however, since it is an expectations survey, the impact may not be lasting. Confidence level: medium.