Commercial Loan Interest Rates Hit 8-Month High

This sharp rise in commercial loan interest rates could increase companies' borrowing costs, putting pressure on their profit margins. This situation may create selling pressure on the stocks of companies, especially those with high debt and using financial leverage. General market sensitivity will focus on central bank policies and inflation expectations, which could cause volatility in the stock markets in the short term. However, the interest rate hike could also be interpreted positively in the long term, as it is seen as part of the effort to bring inflation under control.

The sharp rise in commercial loan interest rates could strengthen dollarization pressure by increasing the cost of the Turkish Lira. Technically, the price being above all moving averages and the RSI at 64 supports short-term upward momentum. However, the RSI approaching overbought territory and the weak MACD signal indicate that the movement may be limited. In the short term, USD/TRY is expected to maintain an upward trend, but volatility is likely to remain high.

EURTRY is trading above its short-term moving averages, with the RSI in a balanced zone. Although the MACD is below its signal line, the difference is minimal and does not indicate clear momentum. The news headline points to an increase in commercial loan interest rates, which raises the cost of the Turkish Lira; this is generally interpreted as a negative development for the local currency. However, due to mixed signals from technical indicators and EURTRY already trading at elevated levels, it is difficult to make a clear directional forecast for the next 1-3 days. Until the market assesses this news and potential central bank responses, a horizontal and volatile trend can be expected.

GBPTRY is trading above its 20 and 50-day moving averages, with the RSI at 62.9 indicating a slight upward bias. However, the MACD remains below its signal line and momentum appears limited. The news headline implies that rising commercial loan rates in Turkey could put pressure on the lira, creating upside risk for GBPTRY. In the near term, a neutral outlook is more appropriate due to mixed technical signals and uncertainty over the fundamental impact. A sideways movement is likely as the market assesses the effect of the rate hike on the lira.