Fed's Miran Could Lower Rate Cut Expectations Again Due to Less Favorable Inflation Developments

The likelihood that the Fed will lower expectations for rate cuts could provide short‑term support for the dollar. The DXY is trading above its 20‑ and 50‑day moving averages, and its RSI sits at 59, well below over‑bought territory. Although the MACD is negative, it is just below the signal line, which can be interpreted as a short‑term bullish signal. Inflation is falling more slowly than expected, potentially strengthening the Fed’s inclination to tighten policy. Consequently, a modest upward trend in the DXY is expected over the next one to three days.

The Fed's reduced expectations for rate cuts could dampen risk appetite in markets and exert short‑term pressure on the S&P 500. Current technical indicators (high RSI, positive MACD) signal strong bullish momentum, yet the index is in an overbought region, implying a potential short‑term pullback. A modest decline or correction is expected within 1–3 days, though the long‑term trend remains upward. Accordingly, a slight dip in the S&P 500 is projected in the near term. Investors are advised to prepare for volatility.

The NDX index closed at 26,668.97, with a 24-hour change of 3.60%. The RSI14 indicator stands at 79.21, nearing overbought territory. Both the MACD and MACD signal lines remain positive. News that the Fed may reconsider interest rate cuts could trigger short-term upward movement in the index. However, given the high RSI14 level, a potential correction should also be anticipated.

A decline in expectations for Fed rate cuts may keep gold prices under pressure in the near term. While GLD’s technical indicators remain in an uptrend, the prospect of higher rates could dampen risk appetite. The fact that GLD stays above its 20‑ and 50‑day moving averages suggests that short‑term resistance levels may hold. However, market participants could quickly adjust prices in response to the Fed’s decision. Consequently, GLD faces a high probability of a modest decline within the next one to three days.