What Will Happen After the Iran Ceasefire for the U.S. Economy?

Following the ceasefire in Iran, the reduction in geopolitical risks could lead to a modest decline in oil prices. CVX’s price is currently below both the 20‑ and 50‑day moving averages and the RSI is under 50, indicating a technically weak position. A negative MACD and a downtrend in price suggest that selling pressure will likely persist in the short term. However, the company’s strong cash flow and diversified portfolio could mitigate adverse impacts. Overall, the price is likely to trend with a slight decline over the next 1–3 days.

Following the Iran ceasefire, a slight decline in oil prices can be expected, which creates a negative environment for oil producers such as BP. Technical indicators signal a short-term downtrend, with the price trading below the 20 and 50-day moving averages. The RSI is at 44.6, not in oversold territory, but a rapid recovery is not anticipated. The MACD is negative, just above the signal line, supporting the current downtrend. Therefore, there is a high probability of a slight decline in BP shares over the 1-3 day period.

Following the ceasefire in Iran, geopolitical uncertainty may rise, potentially supporting demand for gold. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) gained 2.28% over the past 24 hours and is trading above its 20‑day simple moving average (SMA). Its relative strength index (RSI) sits near 60, well below over‑bought levels, leaving room for a short‑term rebound. Overall, a modest upward bias is anticipated in the near term.

Following the Iran ceasefire, a modest drop in risk premium is anticipated, potentially leading to a weaker dollar. The DXY is trading below its 20‑ and 50‑day moving averages, and the MACD is negative, supporting a short‑term downward bias. The RSI sits around 40, away from overbought or oversold territory, so no sudden move is expected. The dollar is likely to fluctuate between 98.5 and 98.7 over the next 1–3 days. However, market reaction may be milder than anticipated.