Treasury Yields Rise as Inflation Data Weaken Fed Rate‑Cut Expectations

U.S. Treasury yields climbed after the March consumer price index (CPI) increase. The inflation impact of the conflict in Iran has dampened market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates within the year. Yields rose by up to 5 basis points in early trading, a move triggered by the threat of escalating conflict if President Donald Trump’s weekend talks failed. Markets noted that these developments altered the risk profile of long‑term bonds. Economic analyst Jared Bernstein, who serves at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research and previously chaired the White House Economic Advisory Council during the Biden administration, highlighted the pressure inflation places on monetary policy. In short, inflation data and geopolitical risks have weakened expectations of Fed rate cuts and increased volatility in the bond market. This is not investment advice.