US CPI Expected to Rise in March, Ending Two-Year Decline Trend

The rise in U.S. CPI in March indicates that inflation is increasing and that the Fed may adopt a tightening stance. This could create short‑term uncertainty in markets and a modest correction in the S&P 500 may be expected. However, current technical indicators (RSI 66, price above SMA20 and SMA50) support a strong bullish trend. Therefore, a slight decline in the short term is likely, but the possibility of the trend continuing should also be considered. Investors are advised to review their positions in line with their risk tolerance.

The recent increase in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) confirms that inflationary pressures remain elevated, thereby raising the probability of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. This development is likely to amplify risk sentiment in the technology sector, potentially triggering a short‑term pullback in the Nasdaq 100 (NDX). While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 67—indicating an overbought condition—the MACD remains below its signal line, which analysts interpret as a possible reversal cue. Over the next one to three days, the NDX faces a high probability of falling below the 25,100 level, although short‑term resistance zones remain robust.

A rise in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may bolster expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening and exert upward pressure on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). However, current technical indicators suggest a bearish bias: the price is below both the 20‑period and 50‑period simple moving averages (SMA20 and SMA50), the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 50, and the MACD is negative. Consequently, a clear directional move is not anticipated in the short term (1–3 days). While the market may quickly reflect the news, the likelihood that the prevailing trend continues remains high, leaving the short‑term direction of the DXY uncertain.

The recent rise in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is likely to elevate inflation expectations and could trigger a rate hike. Gold typically weakens in the face of higher rates, so the GLD ETF may experience short‑term selling pressure. Technical indicators show the MACD below its signal line and the RSI at a moderate level, both supporting a downward bias. Over the next one to three days, GLD is expected to trade within the 430–440 range.