Federal Reserve Study Confirms Trump Tariffs Will Drive Excess Inflation in 2025

A new Federal Reserve study has found that inflation in the United States in 2025 will be significantly driven by tariffs imposed during the Trump administration. The research measured the direct impact of tariffs on consumer prices on a "per dollar" basis, emphasizing their decisive role in the rise of inflation. Researchers noted that tariffs increased import costs, which in turn were reflected in consumer prices. This led to higher inflation rates observed in 2025 compared to a scenario without those tariffs. The analysis shows that the effect of tariffs is not limited to the short term but also threatens long‑term price stability. These findings highlight the need for policymakers to reassess the potential impact of tariff policies on inflation. The study calls for additional data and analysis to better understand the complex effects of tariffs on economic indicators. This is not investment advice.

📊 DXY — Piyasa Yorumu

■ neutral · 55%

The Federal Reserve’s research indicating that inflation will rise in 2025 could lead to a modest short‑term rebound in the dollar. However, current technical indicators—RSI at 41.7, a negative MACD, and the price trading below the 20‑ and 50‑period simple moving averages—signal downward pressure. Consequently, it is difficult to determine a clear direction over a 1‑ to 3‑day horizon; a small upward move may be expected.

RSI 14

41.7

MACD

-0.06

24h Δ

-0.10%

📊 USDJPY — Piyasa Yorumu

■ neutral · 40%

The Federal Reserve’s study, which concludes that Trump tariffs will drive inflation in 2025, is not expected to have a direct short‑term effect on the USD/JPY pair. Inflation expectations are viewed from a long‑term perspective, which may exert only limited pressure on 1‑ to 3‑day price movements. Technical indicators show an RSI of 57.8, indicating a medium level, while the MACD sits just below the signal line, providing no clear short‑term directional cue. The 20‑ and 50‑day simple moving averages are close together and support an uptrend. Consequently, a significant short‑term reversal in the market is not anticipated.

RSI 14

57.8

MACD

0.07

24h Δ

0.19%

📊 USDTRY — Piyasa Yorumu

■ neutral · 55%

Federal Reserve research indicates that Trump tariffs could increase inflation in 2025. This long‑term expectation may lead to a modest short‑term strengthening of the USD, but its impact on immediate market movements will be limited. The USD/TRY pair has risen 0.037% over the past 24 hours and shows a moderate momentum with an RSI of 55. The MACD is below its signal line, signaling short‑term weakness. Overall, a reversal of direction is not expected in the 1‑3 day horizon; a slight upward pressure may be observed, but a clear move is not anticipated.

RSI 14

55.4

MACD

0.01

24h Δ

0.04%

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