Iran War Could Pull Global Growth to Lowest Post-Pandemic Level

The Iran conflict could create a supply imbalance, yet the slowdown in global growth may weaken demand. This combination could keep Brent crude prices under downward pressure in the short term. Technical indicators also support the bearish trend.

The uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict is expected to lead to a drop in oil demand. OXY’s price is currently below both the 20‑ and 50‑day moving averages, and its RSI sits at 28, indicating an oversold condition. However, with a negative MACD, a short‑term decline appears unlikely. A modest rebound could occur within 1–3 days, but a clear downward move is anticipated in the broader negative environment.

The escalation of tensions in Iran could restrict oil supply, potentially creating a short‑term price‑increase opportunity for BP. Current technical indicators show a 1.07% rise over the past 24 hours and an RSI of 48.6, indicating moderate buying pressure. The MACD remains negative but sits just above its signal line, suggesting the trend has not yet clarified. Overall, heightened geopolitical risk could exert a positive price impact on BP, though volatility may remain high. Consequently, a modest upward move is expected in the near term.

The ongoing conflict in Iran could partially restrict oil supply, potentially driving up prices and providing a short‑term boost for major oil companies such as CVX. However, technical indicators—RSI at 39.9, a negative MACD, and prices trading below the 20‑ and 50‑day moving averages—suggest that the current trend remains bearish. Volatility may rise over the next one to three days, but a clear directional move is uncertain. Investors are advised to closely monitor both geopolitical developments and technical signals. Rather than attempting a precise short‑term directional forecast, focusing on risk management appears to be the more prudent approach.