Warsh to Test Balance‑Sheet Reform as Fed Chair Candidate

Warsh's candidacy for the Fed presidency and his plan to reform the balance sheet could increase market expectations that the Fed will take a tightening step. This development may create a slight upward pressure on the DXY in the short term. Technical indicators show that the 20‑day moving average is above the 50‑day moving average, and with a daily rise of 0.13%, the current trend appears mildly bullish. With the RSI at 42, the market is neither in an overbought nor oversold zone, suggesting that short‑term movement may remain limited. Overall, the DXY is expected to stay in a modest uptrend in the near term.

Warsh’s candidacy for Fed chair may heighten market expectations for further tightening, potentially strengthening the USD against the yen. Technical indicators are currently neutral: RSI sits at 51, MACD is negative, yet the price trades just below the 20‑period SMA and above the 50‑period SMA. In the short term, a modest upward move toward the 159.0‑160.0 range for USDJPY is anticipated within 1–3 days, though uncertainty and other macro factors may limit the move’s intensity.

The Fed candidate’s plan to reform the balance sheet may be interpreted as a tightening signal in the United States, potentially driving the USD to appreciate against the TRY. Market participants remain uncertain, and short‑term volatility is expected. A risk‑off tilt could support the TRY, contributing to a rise in USD/TRY. Overall, a modest increase in USD/TRY is projected over the next 1–3 days.

The price of GLD is trading below its 20‑day moving average and below the MACD signal line, supporting a downward trend. A 0.4% increase over the past 24 hours indicates weak short‑term momentum. Taken together, these factors suggest that GLD may experience a modest decline over the next 1–3 days. However, market sentiment and other macro data could also influence the outcome, so it is important to consider the risks.